Anticipating the future of Machine Learning and its impact on people, society and the planet
10 mei 2021
AMLD (Applied Machine Learning Days)
The fundamental implications of Artificial General Intelligence range from our understanding of basic science questions to new applications in virtually all areas of human activity.
Looking further into the future, the “third wave” of AI will consist in integrating contextual information, common sense knowledge and high-order reasoning into machine learning algorithms. This will enable machines to learn from much smaller datasets than what is possible today, increasing their applicability substantially to a much larger and diversified set of real-world problems. Those algorithms will understand and perceive the world on their own and will be able to perform basic forms of reasoning. In perhaps 10 years, ML will also benefit from combining ‘classical’ ML techniques with dedicated chip architectures, possibly also with biocomputing and quantum algorithms. Another foreseeable trend is towards more human-machine collaborations through advanced AI algorithms.
The step beyond the third wave of AI is the development of truly intelligent machines and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI – fourth wave of AI), defined as the level of machine intelligence that has the capacity to learn and understand any intellectual task better than a human. It is debated within the community whether this will happen in a timeframe of 25 years. However, a recent survey conducted by the Future of Humanity Institute revealed that experts in the AI estimate that AGI will happen with a probability of 50% in 45 years and 10% in 9 years. AGI will have fundamental implications ranging from our understanding of basic science questions to new applications in virtually all areas of human activity.
Those developments inevitably ask a series of questions: What will be the impact of those developments on future human society? How will those developments influence our perception as human beings? We will move towards more human-machine cooperation or will machines gradually take over more and more human tasks?